Many hope for a world where there will neither be bombs nor artillery rocking the blue skies, but just the Sun in its natural state rising in the East and setting in the West. Today, the hope of humanity seems to have been dashed.
The world economy and by extension, its political system is now heading into a new phase of instability as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on.
Now in the third month of hostility, the conflict produces a far-reaching effect on the global economy. Economies of several nations in Eurasia, Africa and across the Atlantic have been quite a rollercoaster, as rising energy and food prices hit hard on the local population.
The anti-government demonstration in Sri Lanka, and the civil unrest in Peru among many other high global tensions are not unconnected to the spiraling effect of the Russia-Ukraine military duel.
Russia is not only a top exporter of oil and gas in the international market but also of iron and steel. Substantially, both Kyiv and Moscow contribute to the production and export of food crops of wide demand and consumption such as wheat.
Now that the supply chains are completely disrupted, the future of global trade looks bleak and sadly, the civilian population bear the greater brunt.
Back-and-forth peace talks
Negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv as to devising a win-win solution to the conflict have yielded little or no political outcome. Turkey, with its display of soft-power diplomacy, is at the fore of brokering a peace deal between the warring parties.
The closest both parties have come was in the three-day Antalya Diplomacy Forum organized between March 11 – 13 by Ankara which brought the foreign ministers of both sides into a face-to-face contact for the first time. Although, the forum reared a light of hope the prospect of peace seem as distant as ever.
Both Kyiv and Moscow have played host to several world leaders, including the United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres. Personal contact is somewhat very important in international relations and a deciding factor in ending the inter-state hostility in Europe.
While the leaders of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom pitched tents with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, during their visits to Kyiv, others such Karl Nehammer, the Austrian Chancellor called for a de-escalation of tensions during his state visit to Moscow.
From the foregoing world, leaders are not really in for a dovish approach towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine, others sit on the sidelines, and that will invariably, heighten global tensions.
Phase II: Shillings intensified
The re-focus of the Russian military strategy from Kyiv to the Donbas of Eastern Ukraine is very much on high alert as Moscow pledges to completely liberate the entire region.
At the heart of the strategic shift is the port city of Mariupol which has come under heavy shellings since the first day of the invasion. The city remains a flashpoint. Of what importance is the complete capture of Mariupol to the Kremlin?
Located in southeastern Ukraine, the port city of Mariupol is of grand importance to Moscow and a total capture by Russian troops will be a real shot in the arm of the Ukrainian military, and further deal a big blow to the economy of Kyiv.
Geographically, it will provide a land route between Crimea, which was annexed by Moscow in 2014, and the pro-Russian separatist republics in the Donbas.
Although, Russia declared victory over Mariupol on April 21 the Ukrainian forces in a final pocket of resistance are holding on in the Azovstal steel plant and are determined to defend the city to the very last drop of their blood.
At least 30 countries have provided military assistance to Kyiv since the Russian offensive began with Washington stepping up the delivery of more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine in April.
It appears neither the West nor Moscow is willing to seek a diplomatic approach toward conflict resolution. ‘The best defense is good offense’ is playing out from all sides.
Is the world preparing for a Third World War?
“We want to see Ukraine remain a sovereign country, a democratic country able to protect its sovereign territory. We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine”. Lloyd Austin, US Defence Minister said while addressing the travelling press in Poland after himself and Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State visited Kyiv on April 24.
Washington is intentional and unyielding in its support of Ukraine militarily, and Moscow on its own part is not ruling out the possibility of third world war if the West intensifies the supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.
The successful test-launch of the Intercontinental ballistic missile – RS-28 Sarmat dubbed by the West as Satan ll, on April 21 by Russia, raises the stake for a large-scale conflict and underscores the preparedness of its military if everything goes haywire.
“This truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure the security of Russia from external threats, and make those who – in the heat of aggressive rhetoric – try to threaten our country think twice”. Putin said following the launch.
If the world eventually walks into a hawkish situation, one thing is certain: mutually assured destruction.
Tit-for-tat strategy
For now, no side is willing to give in to the other. Western sanctions on Putin and his inner circle – the Oligarchs, are mounting by the day and in a tit-for-tat response, Russia has barred the payment for its natural gas in US Dollars and Euros demanding payment in its domestic currency, the Ruble.
Turning off the taps to Poland and Bulgaria by Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, underscore the fact that Moscow is determined to implement the new payment system if its European buyers fail to comply with the new arrangement. Who will be next after Warsaw and Sofia?
Another Redline
By and large negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow are heading towards a dead end. The desire of Volodymyr Zelenskyy to one day incorporate his country into NATO and his pursuit to make that a reality but of which Russia sees a threat to its existence stand out and formed part of the reasons that precipitated the conflict in the first place.
Interestingly, Finland and Sweden, two Nordic states currently administered by women and which for the most part of their history have maintained military neutrality are now weighing their options of becoming members of the US-led military alliance – the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
Together, both countries are on course to take a decisive step to join NATO and Moscow is keeping a giant focus on that. Ultimately, If the decision of Finland and Sweden runs contrary to the will of the Kremlin, will Russia stage another invasion?
If the Vladimir Putin-led Russian government decides to move in troops into Helsinki or Stockholm, Continental Europe turns into a powder keg in a flash, and how the United States will respond is up for debate.
A possible way forward
The world political order is irrevocably changing course and that will become more glaring when the storm finally settles. The Latin dictum – Si vis Pacem Para Bellum, which reads in English: “If you want peace, prepare for war” is hitting up the global polity as nuclear disarmament appeals less to the senses of certain ‘core’ state actors.
Nuclear weapons are tools of coercive foreign policy and above all symbols of power and prestige to their possessors. To them, foreign policy is based on the principle that ‘might is right’ – a principle deployed by the ‘powers that be’ in their dealings on the global stage.
The de-escalation of tensions in Ukraine is all up to the leading possessors of nukes – the United States and the Russian Federation. Behind the background are possible machinations that both powers might just be nurturing against each other either for the short term or long term.
The world is in another precarious moment in its history with a US-Russia nuclear standoff in Ukraine at the brink. The ideological battle tailored along with the political system and beliefs between Washington and Moscow still lingers. Both powers seek the best chance to land a knock-out blow on each other.
Countries such as Syria and Venezuela are global hotspots for the US-Russia battle of supremacy and Ukraine is no exception. The two heavyweights are determined to carry on and are more focused on winning the battle in Ukraine at the expense of human lives.
If history is any guide the unilateral and indiscriminate sanctions on Russia by the United States will not produce the expected political outcome and cannot determine the direction of war or peace. Taking Iran and Cuba for an example, US sanctions on both countries neither altered their political system nor beliefs.
Well, there is no way to peace, peace is the only way. Hopefully, Washington and Moscow will come to the negotiating table and settle their differences. Changing the face of the conflict in Ukraine for good will largely come through constructive dialogue and communication between both powers.
It is important to highlight that nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon. If one element in peace and political settlement is missing, a vicious circle will indubitably, be birthed.
The best case scenario in Ukraine is that the guns fall silent soon. But how soon? The answer to that rests on the shoulders of the ‘big guns’ in the game.