EXCLUSIVE: Saliu, Seriki lead Kwara guber talks in Abuja as others pin hopes on direct primaries

Senator representing Kwara Central, Saliu Mustapha, and businessman Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki have emerged as the two leading contenders in behind-the-scenes consultations over the All Progressives Congress’ 2027 governorship ticket in Kwara State, according to multiple party insiders familiar with ongoing deliberations in Abuja.

The two politicians, both from Kwara Central, are now at the centre of high-level conversations in Abuja as APC power brokers move closer to deciding the direction of the governorship race. Sources told The Informant247 that the party is weighing the possibility of settling for a consensus candidate, with both men considered top options.

The development has also reshaped calculations among other aspirants, many of whom are now quietly either dropping out of the race or placing their hopes on the possibility of a direct primary should efforts to produce a consensus candidate collapse.

Recall that The Informant247 had earlier reported that the APC had narrowed its search for a governorship candidate to Kwara Central after weeks of internal negotiations, regional balancing and competing interests among party stakeholders.

That decision, according to party figures briefed on the talks, was driven largely by concerns within the party hierarchy over the electoral viability of candidates from Kwara South, despite the early momentum behind former state APC chairman Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa.

Sources said Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and other influential actors resisted Bolarinwa’s candidacy, arguing that Kwara South lacked the voting strength needed to secure victory in the next governorship election.

Bolarinwa, from Ifelodun Local Government Area, had initially secured support from key figures in Abuja and was at one point viewed as the preferred candidate of influential power brokers at the national level.

The numbers behind Kwara Central

Those calculations changed after electoral data showed Kwara Central’s dominance in the state’s voting demographics.

In the 2023 governorship election, Kwara Central accounted for 41 percent of total votes cast statewide, compared with 31 percent for Kwara North and 26 percent for Kwara South. Party strategists also pointed to the region’s long-standing lead in registered voters.

The trend has continued during the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration exercise. Data from the first and second phases of the CVR, exclusively obtained by The Informant247, showed that Kwara Central recorded 72,821 new registrants between August and April, representing 38.54 percent of the statewide total.

Kwara South followed with 49,861 new registrations, representing 26.39 percent, while Kwara North posted 48,545 registrations, accounting for 25.63 percent. Another 17,714 voters, or 9.37 percent of the total, registered at the state office, bringing the cumulative figure across both phases to 188,941.

What we now know

Against that backdrop, party leaders have intensified consultations around Saliu Mustapha and Yahaya Seriki.

“Both of them are currently being considered. It is a very tough one. They are currently the most connected in Abuja while also not losing touch with home,” one source familiar with the discussions said.

Another source said both aspirants have activated extensive political and personal networks in Abuja while simultaneously building support structures across Kwara State.

“I think what we have playing out now is that some people in Abuja want Saliu,” one insider said. “They feel he is a title holder in Ilorin Emirate, commands grassroots support and can lead the party to a resounding victory in 2027. So they are fully in on his project.”

The source added that Mustapha’s standing within the party was further strengthened by perceptions that he had previously stepped aside for Governor AbdulRazaq.

“They also feel he relinquished his ticket to the incumbent governor, despite an informal directive asking that lawmakers should be given returning tickets. So he is a clear favourite,” the source said.

But Yahaya Seriki, according to party figures, has also gained significant ground within the presidency and among influential actors in Abuja.

“For Yahaya Seriki, he also now commands a lot of respect in Abuja,” another source said. “You can see the caliber of people that were present at the launch of his company headquarters. Even the Vice President and several prominent people, including ambassadors from a few countries.”

The source said Seriki’s appeal cuts across political camps, especially among younger party members.

“He is very much in the race too. He has a lot of support within the presidency, just as Saliu. They also feel he has deep connections with people, especially youths in both APC and PDP, which will work well for him.”

Party insiders also pointed to AbdulRazaq’s perceived backing of Seriki as a critical advantage.

“While Saliu has the plus of being a title holder in Ilorin Emirate, Seriki’s plus now is that he is being backed by the governor,” the source said. “The governor now sees Yahaya Seriki as his own after it became clear that the party would leave the ticket at Central. So the governor being on their side is a plus for him.”

Even as both camps intensify lobbying efforts in Abuja, sources said they are equally focused on consolidating support back home.

“The other day, an Ilorin Emirate group endorsed Saliu Mustapha. What we had next was another group declaring support for Seriki that same day,” a senior party source said. “Both are studying each other’s moves and counter-moves, both in Abuja and at home. They are not leaving anything to chance.”

Despite the growing momentum around the two contenders, insiders told The Informant247 that no final decision has been reached.

“For both of them, it is a fight to finish,” another party source in Kwara said. “If Saliu does not get the ticket, he is going home. He cannot return to the Senate again, at least for the next four years. Same with Yahaya Seriki. If he loses out, he is going home too. There is no elective post left to compensate him with because everything is already closed.”

Still, sources described the rivalry between both camps as measured and unusually restrained for a high-stakes succession battle.

“Even while they maintain a cordial and mature relationship, as we saw during Seriki’s company launch in Abuja where both interacted publicly, they are still trying to outpace each other,” the source said. “It looks more like a healthy competition between them. No unnecessary propaganda or media attacks.”

Others hinge hopes on direct primaries

As the two leading contenders battle for influence in Abuja, several other aspirants are quietly recalibrating their political ambitions.

Sources said two major aspirants, Lola Ashiru from Kwara South and Sadiq Umar from Kwara North, have now shifted focus toward Senate contests.

“They have been told that the seat is for Central,” one source said. “Then they got word of the memo that most senators and House of Representatives members would be returned, so the wise thing for them is to drop for Senate. Even though they denied it publicly, they are in for Senate seats now.”

Other aspirants, however, remain in the governorship race despite mounting signals that the party’s internal calculations may not favour them.

Those still pushing ahead include Gov AbdulRazaq ally Femi Araba, Kwara State House of Assembly Speaker Yakubu Salihu Danladi, former Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe, Prof. Abubakar Sulaiman and former State Party Chairman Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, among others.

According to insiders, those contenders are banking on the possibility that the party could eventually adopt a direct primary instead of a consensus arrangement.

“While others are already changing moves, some did not,” a source said. “Even after they were told there is no way forward, they still hinge their hopes on the prospect of a direct primary.”

Another party official said some aspirants had been advised privately to pursue alternative offices but refused.

“They told some to opt for alternatives, but they all want to fight it out,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss internal party deliberations publicly.

The official said that a direct primary could fundamentally not alter existing political calculations in Abuja.

“This is not about having party structure or delegates again. That only works for indirect (delegates) primaries,” the official said. “For direct primaries, elections will be held by ordinary party members across the 193 wards in the state. That is a lot of work.”

The source added that money and grassroots mobilization could become decisive factors if the race opens up to all registered party members.

“No one can force anybody to vote for someone because those voting will be ordinary members,” the official said. “Money might also play a big role, because the person with the deepest pocket and who is ready to outspend others could get the majority.”

But even then, the official suggested that the final outcome may still ultimately reflect the preference of powerful interests in Abuja.

“Regardless of whatever plays out in the primaries, I cannot tell you they will not eventually get something tangible like we do see in such primaries, and the final results announced may still reflect what Abuja wants. We saw what brings the incumbent governor to power,” the source said.

For now, insiders say major contenders remain active both in the federal capital and on the ground in Kwara, wary of leaving any gap open.

“Even those making deep movements in Abuja are still working massively at home,” another source said. “This is the number one seat in the state. They do not want to leave any gap. Whatever eventually happens, they want to be ready for it.”