EXCLUSIVE: Kwara APC narrows governorship search to Central, sources say

The All Progressives Congress in Kwara State has now narrowed its search for a governorship candidate to Kwara Central, the state’s largest voting bloc, after weeks of internal maneuvering and competing regional calculations, according to multiple insiders familiar with the discussions.

The shift, which is not yet final, follows sustained resistance from Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and other influential figures against the candidacy of Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, a former state party chairman from Kwara South. Party leaders argued that the South, despite early momentum behind Bolarinwa, lacks the electoral weight to secure victory in the next governorship race.

The Informant247 previously reported that Bolarinwa, who hails from Ifelodun Local Government Area, had initially secured backing from key figures in Abuja and was, at one point, viewed as the preferred choice of power brokers at the national level.

That support, however, unraveled after state-level actors presented fresh political calculations that cast doubt on the viability of a southern candidacy.

“The governor and a few other influential figures from Central and North pushed strongly against BOB,” a senior party source said, referring to Bolarinwa by his initials. “He was Abuja’s preferred option at one point. But when they laid out the current political atmosphere and the numbers, they had to reconsider. Eventually, they dropped both him and the idea of zoning to the South.”
Yet the outcome has not entirely favoured the governor either.

AbdulRazaq was secretly nursing a power shift to Kwara North and promoting the State Assembly Speaker Yakubu Danladi. But that position has also run into the same structural challenge that undermined the South: limited voting strength.

“The governor’s real preference is Kwara North,” another source said. “He has indicated support for Danladi in private conversations. But the irony is that the same argument used against the South applies to the North. Once that became clear in Abuja, it weakened the case for zoning there.”

Beyond the arithmetic of voter distribution, party insiders point to internal divisions among stakeholders in Kwara North as a critical liability. Efforts to project unity, including the widely publicised ‘North4Governor’ rally, failed to mask underlying rivalries among aspirants.

“The cracks were obvious,” a source familiar with the negotiations said. 

“It is easier to sideline weaker aspirants, but Danladi and Sadiq are both strong contenders. Neither is willing to step down. That makes it difficult to present a united front.”

“The party is dealing with two uncomfortable choices,” another source said. “Pick Central and risk backlash from the North, or pick North and risk losing Central to the Saraki’s opposition who are now also negotiating his way in Abuja.”

Faced with these competing risks, the party’s calculation ultimately pointed back to Kwara Central as the least risky option, despite its own political complications.

Senior figures from Kwara North, including the speaker and other aspirants, have since been informally briefed that their chances of securing the ticket are narrowing. Some are now weighing alternative political paths, though none has publicly stepped aside.

“They have been told the reality,” the source added. “A few are considering other positions, but no one wants to move too early. Everyone is watching how the final decision will play out.”

The numbers behind the strategy

The party’s recalibration is rooted in voting data that showed Kwara Central’s electoral dominance in the state. In the 2023 governorship election, the region accounted for 41 percent of total votes cast, compared with 31 percent for Kwara North and 26 percent for Kwara South. This added to Central’s record of having the highest registered voters.

That advantage has persisted in the ongoing Continuous Voter Registration exercise. Data from the first and second phases of the CVR exclusively sighted by The Informant247 show that Kwara Central recorded 72,821 new registrants between August and April, representing 38.54 percent of the state total. 

Kwara South followed with 49,861 registrations, or 26.39 percent, while Kwara North posted 48,545, accounting for 25.63 percent. An additional 17,714 voters, about 9.37 percent of the total, registered at the state office, bringing the overall figure to 188,941 new voters across both phases.

The registration exercise, which ran from August to December in its first phase and resumed from January to April for the second, has reinforced a familiar pattern. Kwara Central, home to the state capital Ilorin, continues to outpace other districts due to its population density, access to registration centers and sustained mobilization networks.

Analysts say the gap is unlikely to close soon, even as a third phase of the CVR is scheduled to run from May through August. While attention may shift toward boosting turnout in underperforming areas, Central’s lead appears entrenched.

Central stage: Seriki, Mustapha, Belgore

With the party’s focus now tilting toward Kwara Central, attention has narrowed to a handful of aspirants, though insiders say three names dominate the ongoing discussions.

Yahaya Seriki 

If the governor is left with a Kwara Central option, he is most likely to back Seriki’s candidacy. The business mogul has been one of the few key chieftains that remained loyal to the governor throughout his eight-year tenure in office. 

While he is also independently building his influence in Abuja, he remains the governor’s sure bet.  Seriki, who has twice served as the governor’s campaign coordinator, is also one of the few aspirants with control of the party structure. The other is largely aligned with the Speaker, Yakubu Danladi.

Saliu Mustapha

Saliu Mustapha, a sitting senator, commands a different kind of leverage. His strength lies in grassroots appeal, particularly in Ilorin, where he enjoys significant popularity. Much, however, cannot be said of his Abuja connection outside of the senate.

Mustapha is also closely aligned with the traditional establishment in the Ilorin Emirate, a factor that proved decisive in his successful bid for the Senate in 2023 and continues to bolster his standing.

Dele Belgore 

Dele Belgore, a Lagos-based Senior Advocate of Nigeria, presents a more complex profile. Once a prominent political figure in the state, particularly during the 2011 election, Belgore has spent years largely removed from local politics. That absence has eroded his visibility at home. 

Since he served as Tinubu’s ACN governorship candidate in 2011, Belgore’s reemergence might have a possible nod to past alliances, particularly given his association with the president’s political network. Though he lost the 2011 race to Abdulfatah Ahmed, some within the party views the current moment as an opportunity to revisit that political chapter.

Other aspirants who are equally prominent from Kwara Central are Yahaya Oloriegbe, Femi Araba and Prof Sulaiman Abubakar.

For now, the APC remains locked in a delicate balancing act, weighing regional demands, electoral math and internal cohesion. The final decision, sources say, will likely hinge on which candidate can unify the party without alienating critical blocs in a state where margins have proven decisive.