Did you know there are two Chinas? The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC), commonly referred to as Taiwan. Tensions are running high between both sides and the potential of war in the Asia-Pacific cannot be ruled out. It does exist.
Clearly, the world is evolving in a complicated manner and the international system takes a new turn with the many dramas playing out across board.
Conflict resolution in Europe appears a great deal and that has steered a sensitive discourse in the Asia-Pacific if China will mount a full-scale takeover of Taiwan sooner than expected.
The Chinese military build-up is on the rise and with the show of aeriel strength in and around the Taiwan Strait amid the conflict in Europe, the big question remains: Is Taiwan the next battleground?
Rocky relations between Beijing and Taipei
“If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs, and we definitely will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China,” said Chinese defense minister, Wei Fenghe on the sidelines of the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue held between June 10 – 12 in Singapore.
The Chinese Communist government believes there is only one sovereign state – the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan is an inalienable part of it and vowed to fight to the very end should Taiwan seek independence.
The ROC is seen as a breakaway Chinese province and the last piece to be reunified with the mainland peacefully or by force, if necessary.
Taiwan is not formally recognized by many actors on the world stage, including the United States, and any country that wants diplomatic relations with Beijing must break official ties with Taipei.
To state the obvious, the self-ruled democratic island with a population of 23 million is not considered a fully sovereign state and therefore has a limited voice in the international community.
The ROC under the presidency of Tsai Ing-wen which favors autonomy faces an existential threat from its nuclear-armed neighbor of 1.4 billion people, and where this could all end up is up for debate.
What will an Invasion of Taiwan mean for the whole world?
By all indices, the current Taiwanese leadership is unlikely to concede to a ‘peaceful process of national reunification’ and that could only mean one thing – war with China.
The conflict in Ukraine where the PRC takes a neutral public position hits hard on the global economy. Sadly, it has led to the death of thousands, uprooted millions, and reduced cities to rubble.
International trade depends on stability and should the security landscape go haywire in the Asia-Pacific, the global economy will be the hardest hit.
The PRC is increasingly extending its economic and political footprint into strategic points around the world through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiated in 2013 by the Xi Jinping-led administration.
Interestingly, China is not only Taiwan’s top trading partner but also of several states, blocs, and regions of the world including the United States, the European Union, and Latin America to say the least.
The Chinese economy, the world’s second-largest and in pole position to overtake the United States has risen to such an enviable height not through warfare but by laws of economics.
If it decides to cross the Rubicon, the economical implication will be costly for the rest of the world.
Western strategies: America leads the charge
“…we will align our efforts with our network of allies and partners acting with common purpose and in common cause, and harnessing these two key assets we’ll compete with China to defend our interests and build our vision for the future,” said the US Secretary of States, Antony Blinken in May.
The Asia-Pacific remains a flashpoint for the US-China great power rivalry and one of the biggest risk factors facing relations between both powers is Taiwan.
Washington is prepared for a long fight with Beijing over the sovereign rights of Taipei and remains the island’s most important global supporter and top arms supplier.
Any misstep by China to march in troops into Taiwan could trigger an American military response and all sides will have to bear the ensuing consequences.
Growing nuclear threat
Nuclear-armed states are taking global tension to new highs by increasing or upgrading their nuclear arsenals. Of all nine possessors of nukes, China stands out.
Currently, the Chinese is the most significant in the world in terms of numbers and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the PRC possesses 350 nuclear warheads.
The proliferation of nukes by Communist China with an eye fixed on Democratic Taiwan, and other states in the renewed era of nuclear rearmament begs the question: Where is the world headed – cooperation or confrontation?
Emerging new world order
Conflicting ideologies are a major cause of war in the international arena and the world remains a volatile zone where the most powerful dictates the rules of the game.
Non-compliance to the US-led liberal democratic order is seen by the West as an offset in the international rules-based order.
The Asia-Pacific should not become a geopolitical arena for big power rivalry but rather a hub for peaceful development.
Interestingly, active trade relations between China and the West, US in particular largely benefit the whole world if only both powers could sink their differences.
Humanity needs a fairer world order where equity thrives and every state actor is given a level playing field to compete favorably.
However, the world is faced with a long spell of political uncertainty and the possible Chinese takeover of Taiwan by military action is a dangerous game not worth playing.
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