The politicization of the military is fast becoming the order of the day across the Sahel. The political crisis following last week’s coup in one of Africa’s poorest countries, Niger, deepens and continues to dominate news reports.
General Abdourahmane Tchiani, erstwhile head of the elite Presidential Guard mans the State and carries on with specific reforms however, he faces a threat of war. The Sahelian nation under his command sits on the precipice and faces a series of trade, financial, and travel sanctions.
Dramatic scenes are set to unfold as the clock ticks. The Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS is bent on the restoration of democratic order in Niger and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve its aims, and how this scenario turns out defines a whole lot.
Build-Up
Niger, a founding member of ECOWAS, sits in limbo. Since its independence from France in 1960 the nation faces frequent periods of unrest and has experienced five coups, with numerous other hits and misses.
In 2021, the landlocked state witnessed its first peaceful democratic transition of power since independence with Mohamed Bazoum becoming its state leader.
President Bazoum upon assumption of office up until his ouster led a nation grappling with a complex humanitarian situation and one that is vulnerable to trans-border security threats.
On the external front, he claims vast diplomatic reach and is seen as a reliable ally of Western democracies, including the world powerhouse, the U.S., and former colonial master, France.
To his friends in the West, Bazoum remains popular but to thousands of Nigeriens, his domestic policies are of little or no impact, as the Sahel nation finds itself in countless troubles.
On July 26, mutinous soldiers from the powerful Presidential Guard led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani held President Bazoum in detention and booted him from power. To many, the intervention of the military is seen as a welcome development – marking a triumph.
General Tchiani, who now spearheads the politics of the state, continues to fix certain measures in place however, he has many scores to settle, including a potential war.
Reasons for intervention and what major reactions has it generated?
Coup mastermind Tchiani presented the coup as a response to the declining security situation in Niger as well as its poor economic, social, and defence policies.
Western Capitals, including Paris and Berlin, have suspended cooperation with Niamey in the fields of security, and financial and economic aid.
ECOWAS which follows suit in financial and defense sanctions on Niger considers the option of a potential use of force to achieve its aim: restoration of democratic order.
On Sunday, July 30 leaders of the 15-member bloc issued a seven-day ultimatum to the coup plotters to either reinstate President Bazoum or face the prospect of military action – the countdown is on.
Confrontation looms on the horizon. Mutineers remain undeterred and ECOWAS visualizes an armed intervention as a last resort, but the question remains ‘in whose interest?’
Dynamics
On records, the Nigerien coup marks the sixth in the West-African sub-region in the space of three years – one in the coastal state of Guinea where Doumbouya rules, two in Burkina Faso where Traore presides, and two in Mali, where Goita reigns supreme.
ECOWAS has a track record of successful military interventions in the restoration of constitutional order in states across the region. However, in the current geopolitical picture, the odds appear less favourable if it chooses to resort to force.
One thing that should be considered is the fact that the leaderships of Mali and Burkina Faso have taken sides with the Niger military junta and see an attack on their Sahel neighbour as a “declaration of war”. In a region that is largely unstable, if ECOWAS opts for a strike, does it possess the fervour to take on three states or even more at the same time? If by any means it orders troops into Niger, the political and economic implications will be enormous for the wider region and across the continent.
To reiterate, it is easier to attract people to democracy than to coerce them to be democratic. Protesters have taken to the streets in solidarity with the Junta, which also receives the backing of the Niger Army Command.
The restoration of constitutional order in Niger should be visualized through a pacific lens. The interests of the people matter.
In a terrain where Moscow and Western capitals vie for influence and dominance, if the situation in the Sahel spirals out of control, West Africa’s transformation into another ‘Middle East’ could be rapid.
Countdown
West Africa and its inhabitants continue to see a succession of coups, and it’s about time ECOWAS looked into the root causes of military intervention in the political space and formulated preventive measures to stop the trend. No one can tell who’s next, and as it stands the stakes are high.
August 6 is around the corner. It is left to be seen how ECOWAS under its new chief and Nigeria’s leader Bola Tinubu handles this geopolitical situation when the ultimatum elapses. The countdown is set as the world keeps a keen eye on the progress.