Desperate times call for desperate measures, they say and undeniably, as time rolls by with each passing day of turbulence, the widening consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war are becoming crystal clear.
Confronted with the grim reality of wartime, European security landscape threads through a more dramatic path and policy positions once considered sacrosanct are now up for reconsideration.
European powers, including former ‘neutralist’ states, are desperately exploring alternative defense options to bolster their national security.
Currently, in the fourth month of military action between the warring parties, the puzzling question still remains – will other states following a ‘neutral’ path in Europe have a rethink and orchestrate a major policy shift?
Seismic Changes: From Berlin to the Nordic Region
Unprecedently, in the West of Europe the Olaf Scholz-led German government is on track to reinforce the German military. Berlin is in grand approval of a special €100 billion ($110 billion) fund to upgrade the ill-equipped Bundeswehr.
Interestingly, around 300 Finnish women have signed up for local military training. Finland in concert with Sweden is on the path. However, herculean to secure a membership spot in the trans-Atlantic NATO alliance.
Both Helsinki and Stockholm rolled with the punches and turned around a decades-old policy of military neutrality in May, and in the swim of the seismic changes across Europe, Denmark heralds the latest security shift.
Through a referendum on June 1 to opt into the Common Defense and Security Policy of the European Union after three decades of opt-out, Copenhagen is more than convinced to forge closer security ties with the EU.
Unfolding Scenes
In the throes of policy changes across continental Europe, the prospect of a diplomatic solution between the parties at war seem as distant as ever.
Ragingly, with over one hundred days of military combat when push comes to shove, would other major European neutral states go the way of Helsinki and Stockholm?
Who are the neutrals?
There are a dozen state actors in the North-South divide that maintain the policy of military neutrality either armed or demilitarized for specific reasons.
The policy of military non-alignment with varying forms of recognition is interpreted differently and it is either captured in an international treaty or the constitution of the neutral states.
It is prohibited and a no-brainer for a neutral state to be a member of a military alliance or participate in an armed conflict as a warring party.
That policy appears to hang in the balance with the unswerving Russian offensive on Kyiv and consequently, brings the neutral status of certain European powers into the spotlight.
Switzerland
If Switzerland decides to take an ‘extreme’ position in the Russia-Ukraine war and in the long run orchestrate a U-turn; that will blow the trumpet of a major turning point in modern European history.
Landlocked with an estimated population of 8.5 million the Swiss position of military neutrality dates back to 1815.
Bern took part in the sanctions against the Russians and starring at its face is the pressure to take a more active role in helping Kyiv defend itself.
Austria
Karl Nehammer, Chancellor of Austria, has been performing a delicate balancing act in the Russia-Ukraine war calling for a dovish solution to re-stabilize European security.
Estimably, with the population of 8.7 million, Vienna is bound to neutrality by the constitution and 1955 Austrian treaty.
How long will neutrality command the field for Vienna? The sovereignty of the state is in no small way connected to keeping up to the policy of military non-alignment in global affairs.
Serbia
Re-elected in April for his second term in office, Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia recently secured a three-year gas supply contract with Moscow.
The Southeast European country adopted the policy of military neutrality in 2007 and till present formally adheres to it. But is all that bound to change?
Similarly, the neutral identity of other states such as the Republic of Ireland is also up for debate.
Red-hot Issue on the table
Fighting between Moscow and Kyiv rages on in the Donbas of Eastern Ukraine. Forces on both sides are determined to soldier on and none is willing to step back for the other to step up.
Purchase and supply of advanced weaponry by the West to Kyiv is riding high and Moscow is neither on the back foot. Russian forces press further at full stretch to stay ahead of the duel.
The world will have to wait and see if other neutral states in Europe would give in to greater pressure and give up their neutrality in exchange for membership in a military alliance.
Ultimately, if that comes to play, the strategic balance of power in continental Europe will be grossly altered. But for now, one can only hope for the best and braze up for the worst-case scenario.
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