Trump 2.0: A Reckoning for the Global South?

With less than four days before Donald Trump assumes the reins as America’s number one citizen, apprehension mounts over how his actions might reshape geopolitical dynamics. The ever-controversial President-elect rode through a wave of odds to reach the pinnacle of American power in the November 5 election of many firsts. Beyond the conventional race for the presidency, Trump’s ascent reflected a national showdown of ideologies, perspectives, and priorities for the future. While the US is set to experience a massive shift in policies and laws with Trump’s impending return, the rest of the world braces for the uncertainties that lie ahead. As geopolitics becomes increasingly polarised, one region that could be the receiving end of Trump’s strokes is the Global South, where diverse cultures, politics, and economics intersect. Certain indicators point to this unfolding reality.

Decoding the Global South

The term “Global South” is fluid and context dependent. For the United Nations, it is somewhat of a shortcut to refer to developing countries or those on the periphery of global economic and political power. For some, it represents a non-aligned bloc positioning itself outside the brewing Sino-American rivalry. However, the Global South is best understood through the lens of the Group of 77 (G77), a coalition of post-colonial states formed in the 1960s, united to champion their interests and advance their priorities at the UN.

Today, the group comprises 134 member states spread across four continents. It represents two-thirds of the world’s population, accounting for an estimated 28 percent of global trade and commerce. China, while an economic powerhouse, identifies itself as part of the Global South and aligns with this coalition in advocating for the interests of developing nations. With Trump’s impending return to the White House, his policies could impact the fortunes of a larger chunk of these countries.

Africa

Africa, home to the world’s largest population of young adults—over 60 per cent of its total populace—is poised to play a greater role in global geopolitics. During Trump’s first tenure as President of the United States, relations between Washington and this all but important part of the Global South were laced with oddities. The Republican largely sidelined the Continent in his foreign policy, focusing on other matters, involving China and US military interests in the region, while ignoring Africa’s fundamental concerns. Per his electoral dispositions, Africa may once again have to endure the hits of Trump’s policies, which often prioritised transactional interests over building meaningful diplomatic relationships.

Unlike President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama who pressed to recalibrate US-Africa relations, Trump’s approach toward African states is likely to be less about extending a ‘hand of fellowship’ and more about keeping it firmly in his pocket. Under a Trump 2.0, this could lead to a pause or stop in American enterprises on the Continent, potentially spelling doom for critical sectors such as trade and security.

Latin America & the Caribbean

US’ economic interest comes with some form of political influence in this corner of the Global South. During his first term, Trump viewed the region primarily through the lens of illegal immigration and trade imbalances—a perspective he now appears to hold even more strongly. With his renewed promise to act decisively on immigration, his approach could trigger a cascade of far-reaching consequences.

While securing US borders is a legitimate concern, the impact of any large-scale deportation, regardless of its scale, would not only come at a colossal cost for migrants but also place enormous strain on the fragile economies of countries in the region. It won’t stop there! Trump is so brazen about the so-called Monroe Doctrine without caring whose ox is gored. The Doctrine enacted in the 1820s aims to keep countries in the region within the clutches of Washington and as he sharpens his ‘political sword’, Trump has threatened to reclaim control of the Panama Canal—a move that could come on its head and have far-reaching consequences for regional stability. China also lies at the heart of Trump’s engagements in the region and countries could be caught up in murky waters in the face of a geopolitical tug-of-war.

Asia-Pacific

Four of the world’s top ten economies are located in the Global South, with three—China, India, and Indonesia—located in the Asia-Pacific region. Under Trump’s first tenure, tariffs were a recurring theme in Sino-America rivalry, and with his inauguration days away, he has threatened higher tariffs on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of economic decoupling. For countries in this part of the Global South that rely on stable trade relations between the US and China, such as Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, their economies could face significant disruptions.

Arab world

The Gulf states are among the most crucial US allies in the Arab world, which is often included in the broader Global South nomenclature. America’s foreign policy toward the region has garnered wide attention due to the complexities surrounding its political, economic, and security dynamics. During his first term, Trump prioritised economic and strategic interests while engaging with this key axis of the Global South. As he prepares for a second term, the direction and impact of his policies remain uncertain—whether they will prove detrimental, consequential, or profitable is yet to be seen. Only time will tell.

More fears

Countries in the Global South heavily rely on multilateralism, where the US holds considerable economic power. Trump is a professing nationalist whose anti-multilateral stance will likely extend to international bodies, such as the UNO, IMF, and WTO. This could lead to a reduction—or even a complete phase-out—of America’s contributions to multilateral initiatives, such as those addressing climate change and health. For many Global South nations that depend on these programmes, the consequences could be catastrophic. Given Trump’s electoral rhetoric, this can even spiral into the sporting world, particularly with the US set to co-host the 2026 FIFA World Cup. For many fans in the Global South, obtaining a visa could become a tall order, complicating their ability to attend the event.

Defensive mechanism

US benevolence under a Trump 2.0 presidency is likely to be in short supply as the “MAGA” enthusiast gears up to “walk the talk”. As this reality is set to unfold, nations in the Global South will have to pursue more independent paths to better their lots. While some may be resilient enough to weather the storm, others might just be blown away.