It is no news that the current geopolitical situation in Europe has altered the long-held Finnish and Swedish position of military non-alignment. Their intention to apply for membership in the trans-Atlantic military alliance – NATO, is no longer a pie in the sky, it is already in the offing.
The ‘giant monster’ Moscow presses harder to land a knock-out blow on Ukraine, by launching a ‘special military operation’ in Kyiv and which is now rearing its ugly head up north in Helsinki and Stockholm.
In a sharp U-turn from decades of military neutrality, the Nordic states of Finland and Sweden are both set to walk through the path of becoming strategic members of the United States-led military alliance – the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
How that will play out in the coming weeks in the face of striking opposition from Turkey, a key player in the 30-member military alliance, is up for debate.
Why The Rush?
If Finland, which since 1948 and Sweden for over 200 years, could follow a neutral path even at the brink of a nuclear standoff between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War, then why the lightning-quick decision? Which is followed with unprecedented speed by NATO.
Looking at the bigger picture the historic U-turn is likely to have been in the pipeline ahead of time and may as well fit neatly into what United States President, Joe Biden, said a couple of months ago – “He has no idea what’s coming” while aiming that his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin.
NATO’s Enlargement: Not Off-The-Table
It appears that the overriding concern of Russia right from the onset is now in great jeopardy, even as the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv grinds on. The US-led military alliance is not back-peddling on its quest to integrate more European state actors into its orbit.
From Slavic Ukraine to Nordic Finland and Sweden, the horrifying reality of the spark of a wider European conflict presents itself further, with the eastward expansion of NATO set to take a historic shift.
High Military Tension
Interestingly, if all current 30 members of the military alliance give their stamp of approval to the membership bids expected to be filed by Helsinki and Stockholm, NATO will creep even closer to the frontiers of Russia pitting Finland in particular, directly to its borders.
Finland with an estimated population of 5.5 million shares a 1,300 km (810 miles) border with Russia and has always enjoyed significant economic cooperation with Moscow while both neighbors maintain constant political engagement.
All that is heading towards a whole new direction with the suspension of electricity supply to Finland by the Russian firm – RAO Nordic, which forms a new twist in Russo-Finnish relations amid the conflict in Ukraine.
Can Turkey Dash the Hopes of the Bidding Nations?
The strategic balance of power in Europe will be completely altered if the road to NATO membership of Helsinki and Stockholm is hurdle-free. But currently, both defense partners have Ankara as an obstacle. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reservations do hold water.
One on hand; ending their support of terrorist groups, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK): “Neither of the countries has a clear stance against terror organizations,” Erdogan said, then asked, “How can we trust them?”
On the other; lifting the ban imposed on Turkey on arms sales: “We will not say ‘yes’ to those [countries] who apply sanctions to Turkey to join security organization NATO,” Erdogan said at a news conference.
Under NATO rules, all existing members must ratify decisions on enlargement, which ultimately gives Ankara the power to veto and dash the hopes of the bidding nations.
Turkey for most of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been working round the clock to broker a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow. As a mediator it is, Ankara will only portray itself in dark light if it gives the bidding nations the green light, knowing fully well that the move could hit up the polity in the Baltic region and ultimately truncate its peace-keeping effort between Kyiv and Moscow.
There is no breath of fresh air for continental Europe at the moment. Is it on the path to fast becoming another ‘Middle East’? Certainly not, if only it handles the new situation with extra caution. If things spiral out of control with the potential NATO expansion, the continent will plunge into a new political abyss.
How Is Moscow Likely to Respond in Finland And Sweden?
Countries in the world are increasingly on high military alert including the self-ruled island of Taiwan, wary of a possible invasion from China.
The pursuit for rearmament is hitting up the global polity and for the first time, world military spending topped $2 trillion in 2021 according to the data published in April 2022 by defense think tank – Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Ranking high on the list are Washington, Beijing, New Delhi, London, and Moscow.
Having witnessed setbacks in its attempt to capture Kyiv with the stiff resistance put up by the Ukrainian military, if Turkey decides to clear the path for Helsinki and Stockholm, does Russia has the extra energy to get into active combat on multiple fronts and achieve a decisive victory?
Despite a significant uptick in its military expenditure, growing by 2.9 percent – the third year of consecutive growth – to $65.9bn, its special military operation in Ukraine is not being carried out with pinpoint accuracy.
If Russia considers any decision to go hawkish, that might play out in two major ways. Either Moscow goes nuclear, which of course will produce far-reaching long-term consequences for all and sundry, or it garners unyielding support militarily from a major power.
But the question is: Is Moscow prepared for nuclear combat? Who is ready to come to its aid if it decides to launch an invasion of three countries at the same time? The ultimate decision for peace or war from the Russian angle lies in the hands of the leading figure of the Kremlin – President Vladimir Putin.