The highest level of diplomatic contact between Moscow and Kyiv presents itself in the 3-day Antalya Diplomacy Forum held between March 11 and 13, in the city of Antalya, Turkey. With its display of soft power diplomacy, Istanbul in concert with other global actors is taking a frontal stage in mediating peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, its Black Sea neighbours.
Full integration of Kyiv into the Western landscape tops the political agenda of Volodymyr Zelenskyy-led Ukrainian government, first into the US-led NATO and European Union (EU) on the other end.
As the trilateral talks between Istanbul, Moscow, and Kyiv edge to an end, President Zelenskyy ultimate desire to align with the West on all fronts is looking elusive. With a deeply unconvinced West, an ascendant Russian opposition stands firm, striking from the East.
With Ukraine as a buffer zone, strategically situated between the West and nuclear Russian Federation, Moscow is keeping an eye on its integration into the EU and a giant focus is affixed on NATO.
High aspiration upheld by Kyiv in alliance with either bloc in recent times has inflamed regional political tensions with the February invasion of Ukraine by Moscow being the latest and severe of it all.
Agreement by the EU to examine the membership bids submitted by Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova in the face of a gradual breakdown of European security is more of a show-off.
Official request signed by the trio of Kyiv, Tbilisi, and Chisinau to join the European Union (EU) is of potential threat to the Kremlin leadership. Coincidentally, all three former Soviet republics share a similar fate, as larger chunks of their territorial space are under the firm grip of Moscow.
The informal summit recently held at the Palace of Versailles France, by EU leaders, sent a strong signal to the dismay of the Zelenskyy-led Ukrainian government. With Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister, saying, “I want to focus on what can we do for Volodymyr Zelenskyy tonight, tomorrow, and EU accession of Ukraine is something for the long term – If at all … Nobody entered the European Union overnight.”
The Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic sounded more vocal. On that basis, why accept and examine the membership bid of Kyiv in the first place?
Informally in the family, and not formally in the union
It is becoming crystal clear that Ukraine belongs to the European family but certainly not the European Union. The influx of Ukrainians into Europe and passive reception by some member states leaves much to be desired.
With a skeptic European Union, a Ukrainian membership of NATO looks more out of sight. From a broad perspective, Ukraine appears to be a left-alone state actor and its long-time pursuit to get full integration into NATO proves a great deal.
NATO, a 30-state military alliance is openly committed on the mission to extend its tentacles to the territorial orbits of Europe with the former Soviet space as a central focus.
A 12-member military alliance at inception in 1949, NATO steadily expanded its reach bringing within its ranks 18 state actors across continental Europe with the latest integration of Skopje in 2020. These are indication that a Ukrainian membership of NATO is looking inauspicious.
In the build-up and after the February Russia invasion of Ukraine, support coming in from NATO is centered on protecting its allies in Eastern Europe and shielding away from providing direct military backing to Ukraine. Assistance has come largely in verbal, financial, and diplomatic forms from the military bloc.
Turning the pages of Ukrainian 21st century history, 2008 was quite promising as NATO leaders during the Bucharest Summit vocally promised to integrate the eastern European state into its fold. Fourteen years later, Ukraine’s membership in NATO remains a back-seater. A defined pathway to Kyiv integration looks elusive with the issuance of the Membership Action Plan (MAP) hanging on.
Becoming: NATO’s one No and other Yes
The process of becoming a NATO member is quite a long ride. At the apex of integration lies the unanimous agreement of all member states to certify a new member. The opposing stance of one supersedes the collective will of others.
North Macedonia was the last state actor to become a member of the military alliance. A change of identity from Macedonia to North Macedonia in 2019 ended its long-strained relations with Greece.
Skopje’s pacific settlement with Athens was a turning point in its long-time pursuit of becoming a member of NATO. The resolve it had with Greece saw its full integration.
Evidently, as it stands, NATO allies are unresolved to fast-track the integration of Ukraine. A No by one member certainly overpowers the Yes of others. Unfortunately, Ukraine is caught up in that dilemma. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy audacious bid to hasten NATO membership for Ukraine got his country in a position the leadership of Georgia found itself 14 years ago.
Tbilisi’s efforts to become a member of NATO were foiled in 2008, a five-day Russo-Georgian war ensued, resulting in the double-quick breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia off the Georgian territorial space.
Discomfiting Kiev from joining NATO is one of Russia’s key geopolitical objectives and it is certainly one Moscow is all-out to achieve militarily.
Kremlin’s fear
Ruling out Moscow’s fundamental security demands by the West, the bull-headed stance of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) on its “open-door policy” is arguably the most underlying factor edging the planet to the brink of total war. According to Kremlin, the multi-pronged attack launched by the Russian military was informed with the aims of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine – a broad-day violation of international law, which shows the extent to which Moscow pursues its geopolitical objectives.
“Russia is taking every possible measure to prevent Ukraine getting nuclear weapons and respective technologies,” says Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister.
The Russian Winter Olympic season: Like 2014, like 2022
The Winter Olympics is becoming a Russian season to strike Ukraine militarily. Crimea, a larger chunk of the Ukrainian territory got annexed as part of the Russian Federation in February 2014 – a time when the world was engrossed with the Olympics game held in Sochi.
Pulling a trigger of greater magnitude by the Putin-led Russian government is never a coincidence. 2014 is a curtain-raiser to 2022 military advance. President Putin’s recognition of the independent status of the breakaway republics in the Donbas region came a day after the 2022 Winter Olympics held in Beijing, China.
The invasion
In quick sequence, Russian troops stationed along the Ukrainian borders advanced into the country, the threat of a Russian invasion no longer starred lightly on the frontiers of Kyiv but swung in from multiple directions – another February military incursion in play.
“We have been left alone to defend our state … who is ready to fight alongside us” … I don’t see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of NATO membership? Everyone is afraid,” President Zelenskyy expressed his discontent hours after the invasion.
Apparently, NATO and its allies are on the reverse to get into a direct military duel with Moscow.
Currently, a sizable number of NATO allies are not willing to poke the Russian bear further with a stick by heeding to the membership drive of the Zelenskyy-led Ukrainian government.
No one to help
In one of his recent broadcasts, President Zelenskyy was critical of NATO for a non-enforcement of a “no-fly zone” over Ukrainian airspace. He said, “We believe that NATO member states have created themselves a narrative that the closure of the airspace in Ukraine will provoke direct aggression from Russia against NATO. Its self-induced hypothesis of those who are weak and lack confidence.”
The NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg came in defense of the decision of the military alliance in ruling out the enforcement of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. “NATO is a defensive alliance. Our core task is to keep our 30 nations safe. We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine.”
Reactions from Washington via Antony Blinken, the Secretary of States maintains: “President Biden has been clear that we are not going to get into a war with Russia, but we are going to tremendous lengths with allies and partners to provide Ukrainians with the means to effectively defend themselves.”
Negotiation: In whose court is the proverbial ball in?
It is high time the leaders at the Mariinskyi Palace device a means, diplomacy at best, to tackle this security challenge other than banking on the US-led NATO.
Kyiv membership of the EU is of potential threat to Moscow, a further extension into NATO will create a striking divide. Finland a country that borders the Russian Federation is a member of the EU but maintains a neutral military stance. The whole war narrative is bound to change course if Ukrainian neutrality is handled strategically.
Negotiations to halt the Russian assault are best done in a neutral setting. Ankara is proving to be a common ground between conflicting parties.
The neutrality of the Zelenskyy-led Ukrainian government will probably settle the dust and to a greater extent forestall the ongoing calamity, he may as well decide to hold the fort a little longer till a win-win resolution is achieved.
The ultimate quest of Mr. Zelenskyy is hanging in the sky and might possibly hang on for years to come. Uncertainty beclouds Ukraine’s membership of NATO and by extension the EU. The game-changing decision is all up to President Zelenskyy as Russia’s military incursion of Ukraine enters into the fourth week.