In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, a larger chunk of the Ukrainian territory alarmed and increased the ‘heartbeat’ of the G-8 – a group of top economic giants in which Moscow has been a key member since 1997. This violation of international law formed the basis for Russia’s indefinite suspension from the political forum following the incorporation of Crimea. President Vladimir Putin had enough of the G-8 and fast-tracked Moscow’s permanent withdrawal in 2017, and thereafter brazed up for the ultimate consequences.
Eight years on, Crimea is still one of the federal subjects of Russia. Sanctions coming from the West have ever since proven ineffectual to isolating the economy of Russia. Putin and China’s Xi Jinping maintained progressive bilateral trade relations – a pointer to the strength of the Russian economy.
‘Is the World preparing for a Third World War?’
The last global war which ended on September 2, 1945, was triggered by an INVASION. Germany’s Adolf Hitler’s invasion of Poland set the stage for direct military confrontation between Germany and other world powers, notably Britain and France at the initial stage.
Today, history might repeat itself if the crisis over Ukraine falls short of diplomatic resolutions. Russia apparently, is taking the place of Germany. Invasion remains a trigger clause. Ukraine in the stead of Poland and the United States well-positioned to strike at the slightest of move.
In one of his recent interviews, Joe Biden – the Chief foreign policy formulator of the United States – expressed the possibility of a third world war should Russia invade Ukraine. He said, “if he [Putin] were to move in with all those forces it would be the largest invasion since World War Two…. And it would change the world”.
‘Between Washington and Moscow’
The ideological discord between Communist Russia and Capitalist United States is evergreen. The United States interference in the geopolitics of Eastern Europe and the Far East with its latest allurement of Ukraine in becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) undergirds the ideological push to suppress communism, and ensure an ultimate victory of capitalist ideals globally.
Article 5, the basis for the formation of NATO states: “an attack on one is an attack on all”. United States’ rise in defence of Ukraine in the face of an ‘imminent’ Russian invasion violates the basic principle guiding the military unit. Deployment of troops to NATO allies in Eastern Europe to strike when Putin crosses the battle line is more of a strategy for advancing western interest in the East.
These top-contending global powers emerged after WWII and the battle for supremacy is taking a higher altitude at every second. A 21st century Cold War reflects in all spheres. Washington and Moscow are divided on a number of international issues pitching tents with opposing sides as evident in Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Libya, Korea, Afghanistan, and Myanmar. As it stands, Ukraine’s membership of NATO will downsize the influence of Russia in the geo-politics of Eastern Europe. NATO’s eastward expansion into former Soviet Republics is a threat to Moscow and Putin is all out to truncate that project.
The Slavic blood relations shared by Russia and its “little brothers” – Belarus, Czech Republic, Romania, Croatia, Ukraine and other Baltic states is of high importance to Putin. Kyiv, the capital city of Ukraine holds a priceless place in the heart of Russia’s history. Pan-Slavic ideals largely stem from Moscow, an integration of Ukraine into a western fold will sound the death-knell to cultural ties shared in the Slavic World and ultimately undermine Russia’s prized influence in the geo-politics of Eastern Europe.
Yesterday it was Cuba, today it is Ukraine. The world for the second time is at the brink of a nuclear standoff between Washington and Moscow. The men at the fore today – Biden and Putin, as top European leaders have to map out a viable diplomatic solution. If war can be averted during the Kennedy-Khrushchev era, who says it can’t now?
Zelenskyy: From Comedy to Presidency – no strong political views
It is unsurprising that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian state leader is indecisive to a sensitive power play between Western and Eastern forces. A comedian turned President, Zelenskyy came on board after winning the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election by a landslide. In the build-up to his presidency, he openly admitted to having no strong political views. The Zelenskyy-led Ukrainian government has the largest military threat to Ukraine staring at its face in modern times. How would he survive amidst this West-East tussle over his homeland and live up to the expectations of the ever-demanding tendencies of his people?
Erdoğan’s Turkey is caught up in a dilemma. Ankara shares military ties with NATO on one hand. On the other, Erdogan is a friend of the Kremlin. Mediation would be Turkey’s best strategy in terms of pacifying both sides rather than pitching tents with either bloc. Erdoğan has to come to terms with the reality that the Ukrainian conflict and its intrigues quite differs from the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which transpired last year between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came all out to turn the cards in support of the Azeris, claiming Turkey and Azerbaijan are: “one nation, two states”. This time around he must act as a bridge between Ukraine and Russia.
Germany, under the new chancellorship of Olaf Scholz, is a participatory observer in the heated tensions between the two sides. Economically, the European Union (EU) depends on Russia for at least 40% of its supply of natural gas. The Nord Stream II gas line project connecting Berlin to Moscow is key to the German economy. If targeted by any means, Nord Stream II will have a melting effect on the EU. Scholz from all indications is concerned about European security. He recently reiterated “our common goal is to avoid war in Europe”. A breakdown in European security will no doubt spell doom for the rest of the world.
UN’s efficiency still in question?
The UN Security Council in virtually all issues of international concern makes the efficiency of the United Nations questionable. With the possession of Veto power, the big 5 fiercely engage in the race to pursue their foreign policy objectives at the expense of one another. Too bad! Faced with the latest power tussle over Ukraine, the UN Security Council is taking the shape of a triple alliance – The United States, France and the United Kingdom against the duo of Russia and China.
Militarily, the United States boasts of the world’s largest and highly funded armed force. On the strength of its military, Washington engages in a series of diplomatic rows with the Communist states of Russia and China. American military operations on the South-China sea have really got Chinese diplomats blowing hot. The United States has proven to be a source of regional instability.
The AUKUS deal, a trilateral security pact signed last year between Washington, London, and Canberra no doubt was inked in view of the growing influence of Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region. It is high time Washington employed instruments of persuasion in addressing sensitive global issues. The crisis over Ukraine if poorly handled by the White House will produce a downturn effect for itself and its allies.
Presently, the ramming up of Ukrainian Eastern frontiers and diplomatic interface to champion high-level talks is turning out to be an all-European affair. State leaders in the Global South are showing little or no concern. Should a nuclear war transpire between the ‘two elephants’ the ‘grasses’ will bear the brunt in all-wise. The international political system of the 21st century is highly integrative, an all-for-one, one-for-all phenomenon. If the trigger is pulled by either side, mutually assured destruction is certain.
With COVID-19, can we survive another war?
As the world is still grappling with the effects of COVID-19 and its surfacing variants with millions of lives lost, it’s likely many would be utterly wiped out in the event of a war with all the sophisticated weapons on ground.
Top diplomats from both sides: US’ Antony Blinken and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov have a huge role to play, not forgetting the fact that “great battle is not won on the battlefield but on the table of diplomacy”. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) under the Chair of Zbigniew Rau the Polish lawyer, and concerted efforts made to maintain the European balance of power is a thumping one. Diplomacy at the fore, Kremlin de-escalates, relations returning to normalcy should be visualised.
Macron’s tenacious bid to revive the Minsk Agreement signed in 2014 following the armed conflict between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region; Ukraine’s eastern frontier proffer the best diplomatic solution to the ongoing international showdown. Has he reiterated, the Minsk Agreement is the “only path on which peace can be built”.
Peace, not war
The world today should plan for peace, not war. Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarussian president and his unfettered loyalty to Putin is one of the allies of Russia in the region. The actions and inactions of all states on the Russian frontiers will define the political stability of the region in every sense.
The United Nations established on the basis of promoting world peace and security and ultimately preventing the outbreak of another large-scale global war has to come to the party. In its 78th year of existence, the UN should renew its pledge and champion the cause of planning for peace.
Hopefully, the diplomatic moves of Paris, Ankara, Berlin and Warsaw will bring long-lasting solutions to the Ukrainian conflict as the world marks Valentine’s day celebration in love, peace and harmony. For now, we can only prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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