By Alabi Quadri
Ahead of the 2023 forthcoming general election, political parties and likewise gladiators have started alignment and realignment. A series of defections have been taking place in the polity. In February, prominent politicians, including the former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; former Minister of Youths and Sports Development, Solomon Dalung; popular Northern critic, Buba Galadima; Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi of Kaduna State formed a political group which they named “The National Movement (TNM)” with the motive of making it a viable “Third Force”. Earlier in September 2021, the Rescue Nigeria Project (RNP) was launched with the same motive. RNP was championed by a former presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Pat Utomi; former Governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke; and a former INEC chairman, Attahiru Jega.
Though, Nigerians overtime have been advocating for a third force – since both the major APC and the PDP have not really met the expectations – but going by the provisions of the Electoral Act 2022, the hope that any of the new political groups may field candidates in the coming general elections has been blocked. This is because the electoral law has ruled out the registration of new parties before the next elections. The defection of former Governor of Kano State, Musa Kwankwaso, from PDP and registration of NNDP membership card by prominent members of The National Movement shows that the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNDP) has been considered the political wing of the National Movement launched earlier in the year.
Can NNDP be the third force?
Logically, the way NNDP is receiving high profile and prominent politicians in the northern part of the country shows the party is ready to challenge the All Progressive Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Within a short period of time, the former chief of staff to Jigawa State governor and governorship aspirant in PDP, Aminu Ringim, former media aide to Governor Badaru Abubakar, Bello Zaki, joined the party. In Oyo State, People’s Democratic Party chieftain, Alh. Adebisi Olopoeniyan led thousands of his followers in Oyo State to NNDP. Suleiman Hunkuyi, a former senator, and Ben Kure, a former political adviser to Governor Nasir El Rufai, led the defectors in Kaduna.
A senior special assistant to Governor Aminu Masari of Katsina State, on political affairs, Sani Yankwani, resigned his appointment and joined the party; a former publicity secretary of the PDP, Dauda Kurfi, and Sani Kankia also joined the party. A senior university lecturer and gubernatorial aspirant, Aluyu Jibia has also moved to the NNPP in Katsina State.
In Kano, the PDP governorship candidate for the 2019 election Abba Yusuf (Abba Gida Gida), had earlier led many other stalwarts of the party to the NNPP before Mr. Kwankwaso’s defection. Those who made the journey with him include a former commissioner, Aminu Abdulsalam, and former House of Representatives members, Aliyu Gini, Ibrahim Bullet, Sanusi Bature, and others.
Most Kwankwasiya Movement in the North has decamped to the new alternative/third force party “NNDP”.
The popularity and acceptability of the party in the North within weeks evince that NNDP is in for serious business and can pluck a surprise in the forthcoming general election.
SDP as a third force
In just two months, Social Democratic Party (SDP) has weighed stronger. Although, Social Democratic Party is not a party with a new introduction to the public in Nigeria. The party can be regarded as the oldest party presently in Nigeria, it was formed and registered to contest the third Republic presidential election. The June 12 election which was annulled by then Head of the State, General Ibrahim Babangida, gave the party SDP and his candidate Late Chief Mashood Kasimowo Abiola popularity in the mind of the people.
In Kwara, it was reported that some among the group loyal to the Minister of Information and Culture, Alh. Lai Mohammed has joined SDP, this group is the aggrieved side of Kwara APC a member of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Hon Saheed Popoola led the camp to Social Democratic Party (SDP).
In Oyo State, a former Majority Leader of the House of Representatives, Rt Hon. Mulikat Akande-Adeola had joined SDP with two former council chairmen.
According to the insider, some big wigs in APC are planning Social Democratic Party (SDP) as an alternative if they eventually lose out in the party primary, the latest reshaping in SDP is suspicious as plan “B”.
Viable Third Force!
Nigeria’s political setting has been multi parties in nature and there was a viable third force during the first and second Republic. In his stand on historical perspectives on the third force in Nigeria, former presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Pat Utomi said, “From Nationalist times in colonial Nigeria we had a contest for the North by NPC of Ahmadu Bello, Aminu Kano’s NEPU and Joseph Tarka’s MBC. At the National level, we had the forces of the alliances from the big three of NPC, NCNC, and Action Group. In the second republic, from Waziri Ibrahim’s GNPP and NPP through UPN and NPN we had modified reincarnations of the First Republic order. We clearly did not have a two Party Structure.”
Empathically, the third force has little privilege in politics and in electioneering processes. In the United Kingdom, The Conservatives and Labour are the dominant parties. The Democrats and the Republicans regularly exchange the baton in the United States. Africa Countries are not left out in two dominant parties as well, In Ghana New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) are the dominant parties while in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is fully in control with the Democratic Alliance. Since 1999, All Progressive Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have been dominating and overshadowing other political parties in Nigeria.
If third force NNDP and perhaps SDP can have strong manifestoes based on ideology and capitalise on APC and PDP failures, especially in the Economy and Security sectors, they could end up winning some seats in the State House of Assemblies, House of Representative, and even Senate, They might also produce a state governor, basically, in Kano State with Kwankwasiya Movement population in the state.
Can third force produce a President or have a say on who becomes the next President?
To win the presidential election in a multi-ethnic and populous country like Nigeria demands structure, which third forces lack. There must be structures that ensure their parties are able to engage and build relationships with local communities. If you want to win a significant Nigerian election, you must win at the grassroots level. All Progressive Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have representatives in all wards across the country.
Secondly, elections in Nigeria are very expensive. Votes are casted for the highest bidder. Sections 91(2) and 91(3) of the Nigerian Electoral Act set the maximum spending on a presidential and gubernatorial election at N1 billion and N200 respectively; a senatorial candidate to N40m; a House of Representatives candidate to N20m; a state HOA candidate to N10m.
In the case of a Chairmanship election to an Area Council, the maximum amount of election expresses to be incurred shall be N10,000,000, councillorship election to an Area Council, the maximum amount of election expenses to be incurred shall be N1, 000,000. This is what is stipulated in Nigeria’s constitution, but the reverse is the case on the field. The figure that was arrived at by aggregating industry figures shows that the two major parties spent nothing less than N5bn each on primaries, delegates, media buying, and campaign expenses. The reality is that it is near impossible for a third party to raise those amounts.
Also, to win a presidential election, the time of formation of the party is to be considered. Election is a long journey process and not a movement that will be found within a short period of time and bounced to power. Even the All Progressive Congress that won the presidential election against the People’s Democratic Party in 2015 has started its coalition and alignment two years ahead of the general election. The 2023 election is too close to nurse the idea of a third force.
By and large, the possibility of a “third party” producing the president is extremely low but they can decide the next president through coalition at the last minute, and the party they decided to work with can have her way to Aso Villa.