COLUMN | Nigeria: Where the absurd and the incredible sit aide by side

By Abdulqadir M. Habeeb

Introduction: A Nation Defined by Contradiction

Nigeria exists within a landscape where contradiction has become cultural terrain. Government ministries announce expansive national budgets for 2025, yet actual disbursements to agencies and contractors face delays. Public institutions deteriorate while the cost of governance rises. Citizens make daily trade-offs between food, health, transport, education, and safety.

A gradual normalisation of dysfunction is unfolding. It advances incrementally. Problems that should provoke sustained scrutiny are quietly absorbed. As this pattern deepens, it shapes behaviour, expectations, and national psychology.

This contradiction is visible in multiple layers of national life. Economic ambition coexists with infrastructural fragility. Youthful demographics coexist with limited formal employment absorption. Expanding digital innovation coexists with unreliable electricity supply. Policy announcements coexist with uneven implementation. These dualities form the daily operating environment of over two hundred million citizens.

Poverty, Prices, and the Weight of Daily Life

According to 2023 to 2024 estimates by the World Bank, approximately 30.9 per cent of Nigerians live below the international extreme poverty line of 2.15 United States dollars per day. When multidimensional indicators such as access to health, education, sanitation, electricity, housing quality, and employment are assessed, the proportion increases substantially.

Rural poverty, measured by the National Bureau of Statistics, stands above 70 per cent. Urban poverty is above 40 per cent. These figures correspond to daily lived adjustments:

households reduce the number of meals consumed
medical procedures are postponed
families withdraw children from private schools
working adults maintain multiple income streams
rent and loan obligations generate persistent anxiety

Inflation has remained elevated since 2022, largely driven by food prices. Nigeria imports a significant proportion of processed food and agricultural inputs. Currency depreciation increases landing costs. In rural regions, insecurity and weak logistics disrupt farming cycles and market access, raising consumer prices.

Higher electricity tariffs increase financial strain for households already allocating substantial portions of income to energy. Transport costs fluctuate with global oil prices and exchange rate volatility. The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 and exchange rate adjustments introduced fiscal corrections that produced visible short-term shocks across sectors.

At this scale, poverty reshapes behaviour. It alters dietary quality, delays healthcare seeking, limits educational continuity, and constrains savings. Long-term productivity declines when households operate within survival margins rather than growth margins.

Budget Formulation and Execution Gaps

A national budget signals direction and intent. Its credibility rests on timely and complete releases.

Delayed or partial releases produce measurable outcomes:

road projects stall and deteriorate during rainy seasons
primary healthcare centres operate with shortages
schools postpone procurement of essential learning materials
contractors borrow at high interest rates to remain operational
small and medium enterprises lose liquidity
state and local governments plan under uncertainty

The International Budget Partnership Open Budget Survey has repeatedly highlighted gaps in transparency, participation, and execution in Nigeria’s fiscal processes.

Implementation gaps increase project costs over time. Idle equipment depreciates. Contract variations expand. Inflation erodes allocated values before projects reach completion. Public finance credibility influences investor confidence, sovereign risk assessments, and domestic business planning.

Execution discipline strengthens development outcomes. Predictable releases improve procurement efficiency, contractor stability, and citizen trust.

Nigeria’s Systemic Gap: Integrated Planning

Persistent challenges often stem from limited systems thinking. Health, education, transport, agriculture, energy, water supply, and security operate within interconnected systems.

A rural road enhances agricultural market access, improves school attendance, strengthens maternal healthcare access, and reduces postharvest losses. Weak transport infrastructure amplifies social and economic constraints.

Primary healthcare improves labour productivity and reduces preventable mortality. The World Health Organization identifies functional primary healthcare systems as critical to reducing avoidable deaths and strengthening health resilience in lower income countries.

Agricultural productivity depends on irrigation, rural security, extension services, transport corridors, and market intelligence. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that Nigeria loses between 30 and 50 per cent of perishable produce annually due to logistics deficiencies.

Education outcomes correlate with nutrition, classroom infrastructure, teacher quality, safe transport, and stable household income.

State and local governments manage primary education, basic healthcare, sanitation, and local roads. Strong coordination across tiers improves efficiency and impact. Fragmented governance increases cost and reduces effectiveness.

Countries such as Rwanda, Vietnam, and Indonesia advanced through coordinated, data-driven, cross-sectoral reforms that aligned policy design with execution monitoring. Integrated planning strengthened accountability and delivery outcomes.

The Middle Class Under Pressure

Between 2000 and 2014, Nigeria’s middle class expanded alongside telecommunications growth and banking sector reforms. Since 2015, domestic and global shocks have weakened this segment.

Current pressures include:

currency depreciation that erodes savings
rising education and healthcare costs
increased electricity and utility bills
instability in formal employment
reduced purchasing power
higher debt servicing costs

The 2016 recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, and inflation shocks between 2022 and 2024 contributed to contraction in middle income stability.

Skilled migration has accelerated. Hospitals lose experienced clinicians. Universities lose senior lecturers. Firms lose mid-level managers and technical specialists. Institutional memory declines, mentorship pipelines weaken, and productivity potential narrows.

A resilient middle class strengthens civic engagement, tax compliance, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Sustained erosion limits these stabilising functions.

Substitution as Adaptive Strategy

Households and firms increasingly construct parallel systems:

generators, solar systems, and inverters for electricity
boreholes and water storage for water supply
private schools for educational continuity
private security services
private healthcare facilities

These adaptations demonstrate resilience and ingenuity. They also widen inequality. Income determines access to stability. Public systems face declining utilisation among higher income households, which can reduce reform pressure.

Parallel systems fragment social cohesion. Service quality becomes income dependent. Inequality becomes embedded within daily infrastructure access.

Rural Fragility and Urban Transmission

Rural communities anchor national food security. Insecurity, poor roads, limited storage, and weak extension services reduce agricultural output and increase volatility.

Transmission channels include:

reduced production volumes
higher transportation costs
elevated postharvest losses
increased urban food prices
declining rural incomes
migration into urban informal labour markets

Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the National Bureau of Statistics show that supply chain disruptions and insecurity strongly influence food inflation patterns.

Urban markets absorb rural instability. Investments in rural security, irrigation, feeder roads, storage facilities, and extension services strengthen national price stability and food access.

Converging Structural Pressures

Nigeria faces interacting pressures:

persistent inflation
elevated unemployment
insecurity
weakened public services
declining institutional trust
widening inequality
currency volatility
inconsistent public spending

These pressures reinforce each other. Economic strain increases vulnerability to insecurity. Insecurity disrupts production and trade. Fiscal uncertainty weakens planning. Reduced trust constrains reform momentum.

Socioeconomic fragility increases when these variables converge. Stability depends on policy coherence, execution consistency, and institutional credibility.

Resilience and Structural Reform

Communities mobilise support networks. Religious institutions fund scholarships and healthcare assistance. Civil society monitors procurement. Youth organisations run training programmes. Cooperatives finance microenterprises.

These initiatives sustain survival and demonstrate civic commitment. National transformation requires institutional scale reform, coordinated investment, and governance discipline.

Informal resilience preserves continuity. Formal governance secures structural progress.

The Narrowing Window: What Must Change

Course correction requires urgency and integration.

Nigeria requires predictable and transparent release of appropriations so that budgets translate into measurable execution. Credible fiscal implementation strengthens institutional confidence and reduces investor uncertainty.

Clear prioritisation of health, education, food systems, and employment is essential, with expenditure aligned to stated objectives. Evidence from the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme shows that sustained human development gains correlate strongly with disciplined social sector investment and accountability systems.

Digital public tracking of procurement, contracts, and project milestones can enhance transparency and rebuild trust. Open contracting platforms reduce information asymmetry and enable citizen oversight. The International Budget Partnership links fiscal transparency to stronger governance outcomes.

Oversight institutions require operational independence and enforceable authority. Audit findings should translate into corrective measures. Legislative review processes should align with performance data and measurable outcomes.

Rural security, infrastructure, and market access require sustained investment. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the National Bureau of Statistics demonstrate the relationship between supply chain stability and food price trends. Stabilising rural production supports urban affordability and national resilience.

Planning frameworks should connect federal direction, state coordination, and local implementation to measurable community outcomes. Integrated dashboards tracking school attendance, healthcare utilisation, agricultural yields, employment indicators, and infrastructure completion rates would align incentives across tiers of government. Breaking silos enhances efficiency and reduces duplication.

Delay compounds cost. Postponed reform deepens structural stress. Fiscal gaps widen. Infrastructure deficits expand. Public trust weakens.

Conclusion: What History Will Record

Nigeria has long carried paradox. Paradox cannot anchor development. Rising poverty, fiscal opacity, fragmented planning, and expanding insecurity interact in complex ways that shape daily life.

Unchecked structural pressures converge toward social strain. The consequences extend beyond statistics into lived instability across households, markets, and institutions.

History distinguishes societies that translated awareness into disciplined action. Leadership across federal, state, and local levels carries responsibility for coherent reform and sustained execution.

Future assessment will weigh the scale of challenges against the clarity and resolve of national response.

Posterity shall vindicate the just.

Abdulqadir M. Habeeb is a tech, strategy, and innovations consultant based in Abuja. He writes periodically on governance, systems reform, and economic development.